After a very dismal December (one of the worst market declines in history) and a powerful rebound in January (one of the best months in history), February has been relatively calm.  But before you get giddy, we are not convinced the storm has completely passed.  As we wrote in our 2019 Outlook, this will be a time for patience.  As the drawdown chart below shows, we have not even recovered from our last de-risking event in late November.

The Quarter in Review

The fourth quarter ended in rough shape with major equity markets around the globe experiencing one of the worst ends to a calendar year.  Equity markets peaked in September when many hoped the U.S. growth engine would be able to lessen the pain from international uncertainty.  Unfortunately, that did not last as trade concerns grew and international economic reading deteriorated.  U.S. growth companies were particularly hit hard.  With their high exposure to international markets and being some of the biggest beneficiaries of global trade, market participants decided that the risk of holding them was too large.

October was quite a month for world markets, with many hoping November would be different. Though investors left the trough quickly for the second time this year, October’s losses felt different than February’s. February’s seemed merely ‘technical.’ October’s seemed more fundamental. The immediate context for February’s market losses were 13 months of positive returns, an optimism that the world economy was in a synchronized growth profile, and the reassuring sense that the impact of the new U.S. tax laws were still ahead of us. 

The markets have been experiencing significant volatility recently.  We look at recent disturbances as confirmation of our model’s conservative signals.  Our models do not yet suggest that this will turn into an enduring material decline.